Investor Michael Burry, famed for his prescient bet against the mid-2000s housing market, is drawing attention for a quieter, long-held position: a stake in refiner Valero Energy. In a recent commentary, Burry framed the investment as a strategic play on the potential, albeit gradual, revival of Venezuelan oil flows following the U.S.-backed overthrow of President Nicolás Maduro.

"Realize that many Gulf Coast refineries were purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude," Burry wrote, suggesting that a return of this optimal feedstock could improve margins for refined products like diesel and jet fuel. He disclosed he has owned Valero since 2020 and is "more resolved to holding it even longer" after recent geopolitical events.

Refiners and Oil Services in Focus
Burry's thesis centers on the unique compatibility between Venezuela's heavy, sour crude and the complex refining apparatus on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Valero is seen as a primary beneficiary, with its shares jumping about 10% on Monday. However, Burry noted smaller, similarly equipped refiners like PBF Energy could also gain.

The opportunity may extend beyond processing crude to rebuilding the infrastructure itself. Burry highlighted that Venezuela's pipelines and refineries are in severe disrepair after decades of neglect, creating potential demand for U.S. oilfield services giants. He named Halliburton, which he owns, and peers Schlumberger and Baker Hughes as companies that could be tapped for major rehabilitation work.

A Long-Term Play on a Complex Recovery
Burry's outlook is notably long-term, acknowledging that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan supply will take years. His view aligns with analysts who warn that the country's oil sector requires massive investment and stability before production can materially recover. The call on U.S. oil companies to invest, made by President Trump, faces formidable financial and political hurdles.

For Burry, the Venezuela situation appears to reinforce a multi-year investment theme rather than prompt a short-term trade. His mention of potentially adding to his Halliburton position or buying long-dated options (LEAPs) underscores a patient, strategic approach to betting on a complex geopolitical and industrial turnaround.